Modeling Malaysia's Energy System: Some Preliminary Results

Abstract

Problem statement: The current dynamic and fragile world energy environment necessitates the development of new energy model that solely caters to analyze Malaysia’s energy scenarios. Approach: The model is a network flow model that traces the flow of energy carriers from its sources (import and mining) through some conversion and transformation processes for the production of energy products to final destinations (energy demand sectors). The integration to the economic sectors is done exogeneously by specifying the annual sectoral energy demand levels. The model in turn optimizes the energy variables for a specified objective function to meet those demands. Results: By minimizing the inter temporal petroleum product imports for the crude oil system the annual extraction level of Tapis blend is projected at 579600 barrels per day. The aggregate demand for petroleum products is projected to grow at 2.1% year^-1 while motor gasoline and diesel constitute 42 and 38% of the petroleum products demands mix respectively over the 5 year planning period. Petroleum products import is expected to grow at 6.0% year^-1. Conclusion: The preliminary results indicate that the model performs as expected. Thus other types of energy carriers such as natural gas, coal and biomass will be added to the energy system for the overall development of Malaysia energy model.