STOCHASTIC GROWTH MODEL FOR SPATIAL CLUSTER BIRTH AND DEATH PROCESS WITH MIGRATION

Abstract

In real life, we can encounter the cluster birth and death process with migration, such as the birth of new individuals and disease in certain place and time. These phenomena can be represented by stochastic model that are considered to be more representatives in capturing natural indications involving the concepts of space and time. In this study, we construct a stochastic model to estimate the population growth in Bogor, West Java, using spatial cluster birth and death methods. It is considered cluster birth and death process, including the effect of migration, with birth and death are Poisson process. In clustering process we use Spatial ‘K’luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal (SKATER), which is view to considering the influence of the location or the relationship between locations. It has been formulated the stochastic growth model for spatial cluster birth and death process with migration and has been applied in predicting population growth in Bogor, West Java. The estimator that we construct can estimate the population growth with the value of birth rate is not too small.