The End of the Middle as we know it a Cross-Sectional Comparison of Political Polarization among College Students in 2005 and 2020

Abstract

The growing political polarization in America is demonstrated in many ways, including through increased salience and extremity of political identity. According to social identity theory, people are more likely to view ingroup members positively, and outgroup members negatively, especially when that group identification is particularly salient. This paper examines the evolution of political identity by reporting on surveys of college students at an American University in 2005 and 2020, revealing how political identities and issue attitudes among this population have shifted and/or polarized over time. Results are consistent with increased salience of political identity in that it is a stronger predictor of political issue agreement than other identities like gender in 2020 than in 2005. Findings also show stronger identification with political parties and less identification with the political middle in 2020 than in 2005, especially among college Democrats. Results indicate a growing gender discrepancy, with males shifting towards conservative beliefs and females trending more liberal. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.