Forecasting Bangladesh's Inflation through Econometric Models

Abstract

This research tries to sketch the concrete steps that help carry out to use ARIMA time series models for forecasting Bangladesh’s inflation. The focus, in this paper, is short-term basis annual inflation forecasting. For this purpose, different ARIMA models are used and the candid model is proposed. Based on the diagnostic and evaluation criteria, the most accurate model is selected. The order of the best ARIMA model was found to be ARIMA (1, 0, 0) to forecast the future inflation for a period up to five years. The predicted inflation rate is 4.40 in 2016 and in the consecutive years, it will rise slightly. The findings of the paper will give us a short-term view of inflation in Bangladesh and support in implementing policies to maintain stable inflation.